Market overview: In June, the silicon carbide market rose significantly, the inventory consumption was obvious, and the market spot gradually tightened. According to Baichuan Yingfu’s understanding, due to the suspension of mining in Tarim Coal Mine, the spot resources of anthracite continue to tighten, mostly due to the consumption of inventories, coal washing plants are reluctant to sell, and the price of anthracite continues to rise; in addition, Ningxia control consumption and production restrictions and Gansu’s environmental protection policy support The actual start-up of silicon carbide decreased in the month, with more downstream inquiries, the release of early inventory, fewer manufacturers’ stocks, and the upward shift of superimposed costs. The overall price of the manufacturers was reluctant to sell.
On the supply side: due to Ningxia’s control of consumption and production, difficulty in purchasing anthracite, and high costs, judging from the current supply of anthracite and the purchase of manufacturers, it is expected that the shortage of anthracite resources will be further strengthened, and manufacturers are also concerned about whether it can be maintained in the future. Concerned about normal production, so based on the current situation, the supply of silicon carbide is expected to be further tightened next month.
Demand side: In May, the export of silicon carbide exceeded 30,000 tons, which continued to increase from the previous month. Affected by the foreign epidemic, the export volume of silicon carbide in the past two months has been relatively optimistic. Based on the current domestic situation, it is expected that the downstream silicon carbide will be downstream in June. Demand and export data are mostly optimistic.
In terms of cost: the cost of silicon raw materials is stable; the current cost of anthracite from the carbon element cost continues to rise. According to the manufacturer’s feedback, up to now, the price of high-quality anthracite has reached more than 1,900 yuan/ton, and it is difficult to find the raw materials in the factory. The inventory position is low, and it is uncertain whether normal production can be maintained in the later period.
In terms of profit: According to a rough calculation by Baichuan Yingfu, the average profit of the silicon carbide rough calculation industry continued to be compressed by a small increase in costs this month. Affected by this, the price of silicon carbide at the end of the month was raised as a whole, and manufacturers’ profits improved slightly.
In terms of market: Affected by the tighter price of anthracite resources, the gap between large and small factories has gradually widened. From the perspective of the price of anthracite coal, due to the different degree of financial easing, the price of large factories is generally 50-100 yuan lower than that of smaller factories. /Ton.
In terms of inventory: In the atmosphere of price increases, there are many downstream inquiries, better delivery, and consumption of pre-stocks. There are not many manufacturers in stock, and there are many orders.
On the whole, raw materials are hard to find. It is recommended to pay attention to the manufacturer’s start-up dynamics and the development progress of alternative raw materials.
Market outlook forecast: The current tightening of anthracite resources is still being blessed, and there is no complete replacement cost in the short term. It will not be ruled out that manufacturers will reduce production and stop production in the later period. From this point of view, the price of silicon carbide is expected to rise and hardly fall next month, with a high probability. There is an increase within 500 yuan/ton.
Post time: Jul-07-2021